Economy · U.S. midterms 2026
Canada is the top export market in 4 of 7 Senate toss-up states
Canada buys roughly two-fifths of the goods exported from Maine and Michigan, the two states a U.S. ambassador reportedly singled out in a warning about the midterms. Across the seven Senate toss-ups, Canada's share ranges from 8% in Texas to 41% in Maine.
On Oct. 27, U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told a private business lunch at his Ottawa residence that Canada could be blamed if key midterm races go against the Republicans, CTV News reported, citing three sources. He named Michigan and Maine. The U.S. embassy said the comments were "grossly taken out of context from a broader discussion."
Of the seven Senate races the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, those two depend most on Canada as a customer. Canada bought 41% of the goods Maine shipped abroad last year and 39% of Michigan's.
What Canada buys from the toss-up states
In Michigan, it's mostly vehicles. Canada bought 23 billion U.S. dollars of Michigan goods in 2025, led by trucks (5.3 billion) and cars (3.4 billion). Ohio sold Canada 18 billion, led by engines and car parts. Iowa's top sales to Canada were ethanol and pesticides. Maine's were shellfish and natural gas, about 220 million dollars each, out of 1.3 billion in total.
Canada is the top foreign buyer for all four. In Kansas and Texas it ranks second, behind Mexico, but the scale differs. Kansas sold Canada 2.4 billion dollars of goods, 16% of its exports. Texas sold it 35 billion, more than any other toss-up state, yet that is only 8% of a much larger export economy. Alaska sold Canada 635 million, 9% of its exports, and Canada ranks fifth there.
Tariffs are a campaign issue in both states. Maine Republican Susan Collins is defending her Senate seat, while Michigan Republican candidate Mike Rogers has criticized the tariffs, CTV reported.
Trade fell in 2025 and is recovering slowly
U.S. goods exports to Canada fell 4.8% from 2024 to 2025, from 351 billion to 334 billion dollars. Ohio's fell 12%, Iowa's 6%, Michigan's 6% and Maine's 2%. In the first eight months of 2026, total exports to Canada were up 3.2% on the same months of 2025. Michigan was up 5%, Maine 19% and Texas 16%, while Ohio and Iowa were still falling.
Cook's list is one view of the map. Decision Desk HQ (Oct. 29) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Oct. 27) rate Michigan as leaning Democratic, and Inside Elections (Oct. 15) has it tilting Democratic. All three rate Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.
All 50 states
Toss-up states are marked with an asterisk. Rank is Canada's place among all foreign buyers of the state's goods.
| State | Share to Canada | Canada's rank | Top product | Change, 2024 to 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | 81% | #1 | Refined fuels | +36% |
| Montana | 47% | #1 | Live cattle | +10% |
| South Dakota | 46% | #1 | Ethanol | -13% |
| West Virginia | 44% | #1 | Engines | +3% |
| Maine * | 41% | #1 | Shellfish | -2% |
| Idaho | 39% | #1 | Lead ore | +7% |
| Michigan * | 39% | #1 | Trucks | -6% |
| Missouri | 34% | #1 | Trucks | +2% |
| Ohio * | 32% | #1 | Engines | -12% |
| Vermont | 31% | #1 | Chocolate | -5% |
| Iowa * | 30% | #1 | Ethanol | -6% |
| Wisconsin | 28% | #1 | Plastic sheet and film | -8% |
| Pennsylvania | 27% | #1 | Phones and network gear | -6% |
| Wyoming | 25% | #1 | Refined fuels | +20% |
| Minnesota | 24% | #1 | Refined fuels | -29% |
| Illinois | 23% | #1 | Refined fuels | -14% |
| Oklahoma | 22% | #1 | Buses | -12% |
| North Carolina | 20% | #1 | Medicines | -3% |
| Nebraska | 20% | #2 | Harvesters | -7% |
| Arkansas | 20% | #2 | Rice | -14% |
| Indiana | 19% | #2 | Car parts | -10% |
| Kentucky | 18% | #1 | Trucks | -2% |
| Alabama | 18% | #1 | Cars | -6% |
| Tennessee | 17% | #1 | Cars | -18% |
| New Jersey | 17% | #1 | Platinum | -14% |
| Kansas * | 16% | #2 | Aircraft and parts | -11% |
| Virginia | 15% | #1 | Tractors | -15% |
| Rhode Island | 14% | #2 | Precious-metal scrap | +13% |
| Colorado | 14% | #2 | Beef | -5% |
| Delaware | 14% | #1 | Medicines | -7% |
| Maryland | 13% | #1 | Bulldozers and graders | -5% |
| Nevada | 13% | #2 | Copper ore | -9% |
| Mississippi | 13% | #2 | Cars | -15% |
| New York | 13% | #2 | Gold | -2% |
| Connecticut | 12% | #1 | Aircraft and parts | -9% |
| New Hampshire | 12% | #2 | Aircraft and parts | -27% |
| Georgia | 11% | #1 | Aircraft and parts | -12% |
| Washington | 11% | #2 | Aircraft and parts | -14% |
| South Carolina | 11% | #3 | Cars | -5% |
| Alaska * | 9% | #5 | Zinc ore | +3% |
| California | 9% | #2 | Computers | -13% |
| Oregon | 8% | #4 | Nuts | -31% |
| Massachusetts | 8% | #2 | Computers | +1% |
| Texas * | 8% | #2 | Crude oil | -7% |
| Florida | 7% | #2 | Aircraft and parts | +2% |
| Utah | 7% | #3 | Gold | +3% |
| Arizona | 7% | #3 | Aircraft and parts | +1% |
| Hawaii | 4% | #8 | Citrus fruit | -7% |
| Louisiana | 3% | #12 | Refined fuels | -24% |
| New Mexico | 1% | #7 | Potash fertilizer | +5% |
Canada matters most to a band of northern states, from North Dakota (81%) and Montana (47%) to Vermont (31%). Few of them have a close Senate race this year. Maine and Michigan do, and they are the two states the ambassador named.
Related: How Americans feel about Canada in 2026 · Canadians cut U.S. trips
