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Labour market · International comparison

Canada's Youth Unemployment Rate Is Now Above the US and OECD Average

For most of the past two decades, Canada's youth unemployment rate sat below the OECD average. Since late 2023 that has flipped. Canadian youth are now more likely to be unemployed than their peers in the United States or across the OECD as a whole, and Statistics Canada's own numbers confirm it.

Canada's youth unemployment rate has been above the OECD average every month since October 2023, 33 straight months through July 2026. That kind of stretch never happened in the eighteen years of data before it. For a country that spent most of the 2010s with one of the better youth labour markets in the rich world, the reversal is stark: as of July 2026, 12.6 per cent of Canadians aged 15 to 24 in the labour force were unemployed, against 11.0 per cent across the OECD, 8.5 per cent in the United States, and 14.9 per cent in the euro area, the one peer group Canada still beats.

The pattern was first flagged in September by the Ottawa-based Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS), in a report titled "The Weakest Link: Diagnosing the Deterioration of the Youth Labour Market in Canada." We pulled the underlying series ourselves, Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey and the OECD's monthly labour market statistics, to check the numbers and build our own charts.

Line chart of youth unemployment rate, ages 15-24, for Canada, the United States, OECD average and euro area, 2008-2026. Canada tracks below the OECD average and euro area from 2008 to 2020 and below the US in roughly half of months, then rises above both the US and OECD average from late 2023 onward while staying below the euro area.

From 2008 through 2019, Canada's youth unemployment rate was below the OECD average in every single month of the series, while its position relative to the United States was more mixed. Since October 2023, that has reversed completely: Canada has been above both the US and OECD averages every month without exception, and the gap against the OECD average, which briefly closed during the pandemic recovery, has reopened to 1.6 percentage points as of July 2026.

The national number hides where the damage actually sits. Statistics Canada's own age breakdown shows the deterioration is concentrated almost entirely in teenagers. Teen unemployment was 19.1 per cent in July 2026, 3.5 times the 5.5 per cent rate among Canadians aged 25 to 54 and more than double the 9.2 per cent rate for 20-to-24-year-olds. CSLS's own quarterly figures tell the same story from a different angle: in the second quarter of 2026, 15-to-19 unemployment reached 20.3 per cent, more than twice the 10.1 per cent rate among 20-to-24-year-olds. The teen rate has climbed steadily since the start of 2023, when it was running around 13 per cent, while the 25-to-54 rate has barely moved.

Line chart of Canadian unemployment rate by age group, 2015-2026. Ages 15-19 rises sharply from about 14 per cent in mid-2024 to over 19 per cent by 2026, while ages 20-24 and ages 25-54 stay comparatively flat.

CSLS finds that the rise in youth unemployment has been driven overwhelmingly by weaker job finding rather than increased job separations. Layoffs of young workers have stayed below pre-pandemic levels throughout. In other words, this looks more like a hiring problem than a wave of youth layoffs. The report goes further and asks who is filling the jobs teenagers used to hold. Looking at retail trade and food services, the two industries where teens are most concentrated, CSLS found teen employment in those industries fell 18.2 per cent between the first quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2026, while employment of degree-holding 20-to-24-year-olds in the same industries rose 54.3 per cent and degree-holding 25-to-54-year-olds rose 21.0 per cent. The composition of those industries has shifted toward older, more educated workers, increasing competition for jobs traditionally filled by teenagers.

Diverging bar chart showing employment change in retail trade and accommodation/food services by age and education, Q1 2023 to Q2 2026. Teens with no degree down 18.2 per cent. 20-24-year-olds with a bachelor's degree up 54.3 per cent. 25-54-year-olds with a bachelor's degree up 21.0 per cent.

CSLS is careful not to pin this on one cause. Beyond the hiring slowdown and productivity gains that let youth-heavy industries run with fewer entry-level staff, the report points to a supply-side factor: non-permanent residents' share of Canada's overall population rose from 3.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2021 to 7.6 per cent by the end of 2024 (that share has since started to decline as policy has tightened), intensifying competition for the entry-level jobs where youth employment is concentrated.

CSLS recommends strengthening the transition from school to work and creating earlier employment pathways, but the report stops short of identifying a single policy lever that would restore teen hiring in retail and food service. That is a defensible caution for a research institute. It leaves a harder question unanswered: how much of the deterioration reflects a weak labour market, and how much reflects a rapid expansion in the pool of workers competing for the entry-level jobs Canadian teenagers have traditionally relied on?